6:00 pm - When forecasting the arrival of a storm path that's a 1000 miles away a tiny variation can mean the difference between a direct hit and a 50 mile miss. As things look now, for much of the Cape, Earl will have about the same impact as a typical nor'easter. The exception may be properties along Nantucket Sound where uncommonly large seas could wash ashore.
12:30 pm - Things have gone downhill since early this morning. In the 11 am forecast the path shifted west and now moves directly over Nantucket and the lower Cape. Click on the graphic for a larger image.
8 am - This morning's Hurricane Center forecast shows a capital "H" on top of Orleans. There is talk of wind gusts reaching 90 mph on Nantucket and 75 mph on Cape Cod. If Earl follows the Hurricane Center's currently forecast path those numbers are probably on the low side. Peak wind will be late Friday night.
From a surf perspective Friday will be a mess from onshore winds but Saturday should be clean, starting at well over 2X overhead from SE around sunrise and dropping quickly to head high from S by sunset. The wind will be blowing hard offshore from the west.
Earl is moving quickly so damage from sustained high winds should be minimized and (unfortunately) the window for overhead waves is small.
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